Cardozo Law School
نویسندگان
چکیده
Chaos theory, originally a branch of modern physics holding that there is pattern to the seeming randomness of physical events occurring in the universe, is emerging as one of the mostdiscussed new paradigms in contemporary American thought, both legal and otherwise. ... Thus, any price change can only be the result of new information, the production of which is itself assumed to be random. ... Despite this different testing methodology, semi-strong efficiency depends on the validity of the random walk model, which depends in turn on empirical conclusions concerning the absence of statistical dependence in security price data. ... The distinction between nonlinear and linear systems goes well beyond noise theory, however, because noise theory itself is constrained by the efficiency paradigm, whereas nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory break from that context and imply a fundamentally different understanding of public capital market behavior with a broader perspective on investor and market behavior. ... Although noise theory makes the important point that psychological or emotional trading is likely to be a factor, noise theory models explain biased price changes on the grounds that risk-averse arbitrageurs will not correct the effects of such trading. ... The Article examined the historical roots of the ECMH and the random walk model of public capital market behavior, which the ECMH explains. ... If the random walk model is not an accurate account of public capital market behavior, then the ECMH is largely meaningless because it answers the wrong question. ...
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